When the Rand Takes the Wheel
A veteran’s look at how a restless currency kept importers, exporters, and logistics professionals on their toes, and what the journey tells us about resilience heading into 2026.
If 2025 were a supply chain, it would have been one of those shipments that started late, got rerouted twice, and somehow still made it to the customer almost on time. The Rand, our unpredictable travelling companion, certainly took the scenic route this year. It drifted from the high teens to the low 17s and back again, giving everyone from freight forwarders to CFOs a few extra grey hairs.
At the start of the year, economists were already bracing for turbulence. Some warned the currency could weaken to R21 to the dollar if global sentiment turned sour, while others, including the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), projected a range between R17 and R18. The consensus was clear: expect volatility but not collapse.
A Currency on a Rollercoaster
When 2025 kicked off, the rand hovered around R18.70 to R18.90 per dollar. This was hardly the strong start importers were hoping for. By April and May, it briefly touched R19.70 amid global risk aversion and local political jitters. For logistics teams juggling bunker fuel, dollar-based freight contracts, and imported warehouse equipment, that swing hit like an unexpected demurrage bill.
Through mid-year, the rand mostly sat between R18.50 and R19.20. Then, in true Springbok (South Africa’s National Rugby Team) style, it staged a comeback in the second half. By November, it firmed to around R17.20, one of its best levels of the year.
So yes, the rand did what it always does: it kept both the optimists and the pessimists guessing.
The Push and Pull Behind the Rand’s Journey
On the downside, early in the year, expectations of SARB rate cuts narrowed South Africa’s yield advantage over the US, dulling investor appetite. Add strong US data and rising Treasury yields, and the dollar dominated while emerging-market currencies, ours included, took a knock.
Commodity prices didn’t lend a hand either. Softer platinum-group metal and coal prices trimmed export earnings, while mid-year fiscal jitters, from debt ratios to Eskom and Transnet’s funding gaps, added more pressure.
On the upside, from August, the tide turned. The dollar softened as markets priced in potential Fed rate cuts for 2026. Local inflation cooled faster than expected, giving the rand some breathing room. Exports of gold and manganese improved, and a calmer post-election atmosphere helped rebuild confidence.
In the end, the SARB’s “high-17s” scenario turned out closest to reality. Yes, volatility was inevitable, but sustained weakness never arrived.
When the Rand (or Dollar) Sneezes, Logistics Catches a Cold
Currency swings never stay confined to trading screens. In logistics, almost instantly, they spill straight into warehouses, shipping schedules, and procurement plans.
For importers, the first half of 2025 felt like “déjà vu”. With the rand north of R19, landed costs spiked 10–15% almost overnight. Ocean-freight contracts, port fees, bunker fuel, and insurance, which are mostly dollar-denominated, became pricier in rand terms. Many retailers delayed shipments or trimmed orders, clogging Durban and Cape Town ports as containers waited for better exchange rates. Logistics providers, as always, scrambled for space and vessel slots.
Exporters had the opposite headache. The weak rand early in the year was a windfall, boosting rand revenue, that is, until it firmed again into the R17s, tightening margins. Agro-exporters in citrus and wine felt it most. Those with forward-cover contracts slept more easily, spot sellers less so.
Freight Forwarders: The Unsung Contortionists
If 2025 had a hero category, it was freight forwarders. Many re-priced contracts several times as dollar-linked surcharges like the Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) and Currency Adjustment Factor (CAF) shifted with every rand move.
To cope, more firms rolled out dynamic quotation systems, which are smart pricing engines that refresh daily to safeguard margins. Logistics companies like Turners Shipping have always geared towards these swings by having a dedicated Freight Procurement Specialist.
By year-end, a firmer rand encouraged importers to restock, and air-cargo demand picked up. In logistics, volatility doesn’t just create challenges; it creates opportunities for those quick enough to move and be agile.
The Cost of Keeping the Lights (and Cranes) On
Exchange-rate weakness also inflated the price of imported capital equipment. Cranes, forklifts, IT systems, and warehouse automation cost 10–20% more in rand terms through the first half. Many operators postponed procurement until stability returned in the third quarter. When it did, investment picked up quietly in the fourth, as lower replacement costs revived confidence.
Fuel, as ever, played its wildcard role. Because South Africa mostly imports refined fuels, a weaker rand amplifies local pump prices even when global oil is steady. The combination of rand weakness and higher freight surcharges in early 2025 pushed domestic transport rates up about 6–8%. Fortunately, the rand’s late-year rally softened that blow, just in time for the festive season (and a few long-awaited road trips).
Inflation, Supply Chains, and the Rand’s Ripple Effect
When the rand stumbled early in 2025, imported inflation crept into food, electronics, and vehicles, nudging prices higher and complicating SARB policy decisions. By year-end, a stronger currency helped cool inflation expectations, and some retailers revived promotions that had been shelved earlier in the year.
The revised inflation sentiment was even featured in the Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana, MTBPS address on 12 November 2025. Minister Godongwana stated that South Africa is adopting a new inflation target of 3% with a ±1 percentage-point band, replacing the previous 3% – 6% range, in order to better anchor inflation expectations and create space for lower interest rates.
Global supply chains and multinationals also had to adjust. USD-denominated transfer pricing muddied profit allocations, while trade financiers and insurers saw rising demand for rand-based hedging products. When the rand moves, every link in the chain feels it.
The Rand in Context — and in Perspective
South Africa wasn’t alone on the currency roller-coaster. The Brazilian real and Turkish lira also swung wildly in 2025. But South Africa’s geography makes the effects sharper because we are positioned at the far end of long maritime supply chains. Every one-rand move against the dollar can shift the national import bill by billions.
The logistics sector generally absorbs that first shock. Freight forwarders, customs brokers, and shipping agents are the shock absorbers of these swings, often before consumers even notice. That is why strategic hedging, flexible contracts, digital freight-rate management systems, and an agile logistics partner like Turners Shipping have moved from “nice-to-have” to “non-negotiable.”
Lessons from 2025
If 2025 taught us anything, it’s that resilience in logistics isn’t about predicting the next currency move. It’s about systems that can bend without breaking. A few key lessons stand out:
- Plan for a range, not a point. Budget around R16 (best), R18 (base), and R20+ (stress).
- Hedge smartly. Forward contracts and natural hedges beat speculation every time.
- Align treasury and logistics. Secure freight and exchange cover together to avoid offsetting risks.
- Use strong-rand windows. Prepay for dollar-denominated freight or equipment when the rate allows.
- Watch the big triggers. Fed policy, SARB meetings, commodity prices, and fiscal signals remain key.
Looking Ahead to 2026
Most forecasts for 2026 suggest gentle rand strength or at least stability:
- Exchangerates.org.uk: ~R17.00 by mid-2026, R16.97 by year-end
- Traders Union: ~R16.92 by year-end
- Long Forecast: monthly averages in the R15–R16 range
- TradingEconomics: R16.5–R17.5 corridor
In short, analysts see the rand between R16.50 and R17.50 by late 2026 with mild appreciation from current levels, assuming steady growth, contained inflation, credible fiscal policy, healthy commodity prices, and political calm.
For trade and logistics:
- Importers may enjoy lower landed costs and steadier freight budgets.
- Exporters could feel a margin squeeze if the rand strengthens.
- Logistics providers gain from more predictable surcharges.
- Budget planners should anchor around R17 — optimistic R16.5, cautious R18.
Steering Through the Storms
If 2025 confirmed anything, it’s that the rand is a high-beta currency. This means it is quick to stumble when confidence fades, but just as quick to recover when sentiment turns. Predictions of prolonged weakness were overdone; by year-end, the currency had bounced back much like the Springboks after a bruising first half, a bit battered, but triumphant in the end.
For logistics professionals, every fluctuation became a live-fire drill in adaptability. Re-quoting rates, rescheduling shipments, rebalancing cashflows; these all became the order of the day. Yet through it all, the sector did what it always does: it kept things moving.
As we look to 2026, success won’t hinge on guessing the next exchange rate. It’ll come from building supply chains agile enough to thrive in whatever direction the rand decides to take. Because if 2025 taught us anything, it’s that the rand will always take the scenic route and the best logistics operators, like Turners Shipping, will navigate it calmly, efficiently, and maybe even with a smile.
Gregory Marks
Business Development & Transformation Manager
Turners Shipping